SIGNAL 01
Executive conviction
Open-market purchases by a CEO or CFO may indicate a belief that shares are undervalued. We distinguish discretionary purchases from grants, tax withholding and option exercises.
Independent market research · Public disclosure intelligence
Follow the filings.
Test the signal.
Measure the results.
C²I combines corporate insider trading disclosures with congressional stock transaction reports to surface stocks worth investigating—and rigorously test whether those signals outperform the market.
⏱ 4 horizons · 30 / 90 / 180 / 365 days🏛 Congress · public transaction reports📄 SEC · Form 4 filings
01 / Our investment thesis
Why these signals might matter
Executives can choose to purchase shares using their own capital, and congressional investment disclosures can provide a second independent lens. We research whether meaningful buying activity precedes future stock gains. We do not assume insiders always predict stock performance.
SIGNAL 02
Buying clusters
Purchases by several independent officers and directors can be more informative than an isolated transaction. We test this assumption rather than treating it as proven.
SIGNAL 03
Congressional agreement
Newly disclosed purchases by legislators may corroborate a signal—but late filing dates, broad value ranges and contrary evidence can substantially weaken usefulness.
Our proposed scoring framework · not yet calibrated
C²I = 55% insider buying + 15% buying clusters + 15% congressional activity + 15% agreement
Insider buying · 55%Clusters · 15%Congress · 15%Agreement · 15%
A separate investment-quality review considers valuation, financial health, earnings events, liquidity and downside risk. These initial weights are hypotheses, not verified predictors.
Why we're cautiously optimistic: Prior academic research has found that some categories of corporate insider purchases contain useful information, particularly when separating voluntary buying from other transactions. But abnormal returns vary across samples, and congressional copying strategies have not consistently outperformed the market. C²I needs its own point-in-time backtest before claiming a demonstrated edge.
02 / Member research
Subscriber watchlist and new candidates
Daily insider filings, congress disclosures, evidence rankings, and candidate updates are available only inside the secure member dashboard. Our public site shows the methodology without distributing paid reports.
INSIDER EDGE Research Desk
See the original tracked stocks, the latest newly qualified candidates, source filing links, and the disclosure-versus-trade timing notes after signing in.
Member login & research →04 / Accountability
Results, not hype
We will track each candidate from the next practicable trading session after its signal is publicly disclosed and compare holding-period returns with SPY. This prevents using future information to make a historical strategy look more successful than it was.
30dShort term
90dQuarterly
180dSix months
365dOne year
Research status: No validated C²I win rate or excess-return backtest has been published. The initial positions are research candidates, not an audited model portfolio. Returns will be posted only when the necessary starting prices and subsequent history are verified.
How we will judge success
For each horizon: percentage of winners, average and median total return, average excess return relative to SPY, drawdowns, the impact of spreads and costs, and performance of insider-only versus Congress-only versus combined signals. We also count losing selections and delisted stocks.
05 / Transparency
Primary sources
The filing date is critical: a trade can occur well before it is publicly known. Most SEC Form 4 transactions are due within two business days, while covered congressional trades are generally reported within 30 days of notification and no later than 45 days after the trade.
Important caveats: disclosures may be amended; some congressional transactions belong to spouses or dependents; reported amounts may be broad ranges; insider sales frequently have non-informational reasons. Public disclosures do not establish illegal insider trading or misconduct.
06 / Membership
C²I Member Access
One straightforward membership for the complete C²I research experience, including insider and congressional disclosure monitoring, emerging stock candidates, and tracked results.
ONE MEMBERSHIP · $19.95 MONTHLY
$19.95 / month
Includes the daily C²I watchlist, new candidate research, SEC Form 4 and congressional disclosure analysis, and 30/90/180/365-day benchmark tracking as those results become available.
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